I know that this is something all of us
that pay more than a small amount of attention to presidential
politics has heard complaints about at one time or another: The
Electoral College.
For those of you who didn't pay
attention in civics class or live outside the U.S., the Electoral
College is essentially this — A body of people representing the
states of the U.S., who formally cast votes for the election of the
president and vice president.
See, in the U.S. we don't directly
elect the president or the vice president. Sure, we have nationwide
elections for the office but we are actually choosing "electors,”
who usually pledge to vote for a particular candidates. Each U.S.
state is given one elector for each of its U.S. Senator and
Representative, so of course, larger states have more.
I, like many others over the years,
would like to see it replaced by a popular vote for president.
Of course, if that were to happen we'd
still have to decide one thing: Do we want to determine the president
by whoever gets the most votes, or plurality, or whoever gets the
majority? That's a very important difference.
You see, aside from the infamous
elections of 2000, 1888, 1876 and 1826 where the candidate with the
most votes lost, we've also had several presidential elections where
the candidate who got the most votes won the presidency with lessthan 50 percent of the popular vote.
If you count the elections where the
candidate with the most votes lost, you have 18 elections, 12
elections if you don't count the popular vote losers winning, in
U.S. history where the winner had less than 50 percent of the votes.
This includes both of Bill Clinton's wins, 43.01 percent in 1992 and
49.23 percent in 1996, Richard Nixon with 43.42 percent in 1968 and
John Kennedy with 49.72 in 1960.
Now some people will point at that list
and say “see, it works out!” But of course, that's when their guy
wins.
It's not to say it hasn't worked out in
some instances either. After all, I'm not writing the about “quality”
of leadership, though the electoral college has a very mixed record
on that — remember the George W. Bush presidency after all.
This year, it's very likely that the
winner will win the popular vote but won't hit 50 percent plus one.
I'm sure some people will be pleased with that and many of them are
the same people who cursed the electoral college in 2000 when Bush
beat Al Gore.
The most common argument I hear for the
electoral college is “well, if we didn't have it, they'd only go to
the big population city/states.” That's nonsense though. Less than
10 percent of Americans live in the boundaries of the country's 10
largest cities and only 35 percent live in the 10 largest metro
areas, which includes suburbs and exburbs. These cities and metros
are also not concentrated in one region or state and not necessarily
“liberal” or “conservative” in their voting patterns.
Of course, one can argue that the
bigger states would dominate candidates' interest. After all, why
bother campaigning for a few hundred thousand votes in Wyoming or
Vermont when you can be campaigning for millions in California? The
10 most populous states — California, Texas, Florida, New York,
Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia —
have 50 percent of the U.S. population.
But so what?
Those states already have much more
influence than smaller states. California has 53 members in the U.S.
House of Representatives while Vermont and Wyoming have one each.
Their electoral votes reflect this California has 55 electoral votes
and Wyoming and Vermont each have three. So they're still minor
states, nothing is going to balance it out.
What the electoral system has done is
essentially carve the states into a lot of “this is our state, no
need to put much effort in here” and a few “we have to fight for
these states.” It has essentially turned the country into three
voting blocs, Blue states that Republicans don't bother with, Red
states that Democrats don't bother with and Battleground states where
almost all their effort goes. If you're not in a battleground state,
you're pretty much ignored and often your vote doesn't matter because
the people of your state are going to vote overwhelmingly for one
candidate over the other. If your vote is going to be tossed, why
even bother voting?
If the Electoral College were done away
with, then those Red voters in Blue states and Blue voters in Red
states would see their votes actually matter in a presidential race.
It wouldn't be “Candidate X won Arkansas, all the Arkansas votes
for Candidate Y can be tossed.” Can anybody justify doing that to
people who turn out in the rain, cold and wind to wait in lines going
around the block to get to the voting booth?
Which leads us to “third party”
supporters, as they are called.
Those are people who are told “you're
throwing away your vote” when they vote their conscience. It's not
very fair to them nor is it to their candidates who are labeled
“spoilers” by some and “nobodies” by others. If a candidate
is able to get on enough ballots to win, don't they deserve a level
playing field too? Should their supporters' votes go in the trash as
well?
That's why I believe we should not only
ditch the electoral college, but also a runoff election if a
candidate fails to garner 50 percent plus one of the popular vote.
There are two ways to handle this: A
runoff election or instant runoff voting.
Instant runoff voting is the simplest to explain, but also the more complicated of the two. Essentially,
when you vote, you get a list of all the candidates who each have a
box by their name. Using these boxes, you choose your favorite
candidate by giving them a “1” and then your preferred
alternative a “2” and then other candidates a “3” or “4”
and so on, depending how long the list of candidates you are willing
to vote for is. Less complicated ballots have the candidates listed
twice, with on list for your first preference and the other for your
“alternate preference.”
You see, simple sounding but at the
same time, pretty complicated to pull off — but you'd at least know
the winner right away.
The other one, a second round of
elections is also easy to explain and probably easier to put in
place.
A second round of elections means that
the two candidates with the most votes go head to head in a
one-on-one election after the general election. This means that the
other candidates who didn't get enough votes to be in the top two are
out of the runoff round.
While they may be out as candidates,
the losers are also given a great amount of power considering the
people who voted for them may be the deciding factor in who
ultimately wins. The top two would have to win over those voters and
which means the top-two hopefuls may need to seek the endorsements of
their former rivals to win.
How much longer would a second round
draw out an election? There's nothing set in stone. France held its
last run-off election two weeks after the regular election in 2002
while Peru had its second round presidential election 57 days after
the general election in 2016. I would hope the U.S. would stay toward
the shorter end, allowing enough time for one last debate between the
candidates.
In the U.S., Donald Trump and Hillary
would be vying for not only voters who probably didn't show up for
the first round, but also people who voted for Gary Johnson of the
Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party. According to
FiveThirtyEight.com's polls-plus forecast, Clinton will have 48.6
percent of the popular vote, Trump 43.7, Johnson 6.2 and other
candidates, including Stein will have 1.5 percent of the popular
vote.
That means that Clinton only needs 1.4
percent plus one vote to win in a hypothetical runoff election. In
order to win a runoff, Trump would have to not only win all of
Johnson's supporters, but also 0.1 percent of those who voted other
and a plus one, which would be very difficult to achieve, especially
if many of Johnson's supporters decided to stay home.
Of course, people would still be
unhappy with that result, or any, but that's just a regular part of
democracy.
So someone may still ask “why go to a
majority popular vote if the results are largely the same?”
Why? Because it not only opens the door
a little bit more for those parties that aren't the Big D or Big R,
but also gives them power even if they lose. It's closer to the
American ideal that we have in the modern age, where everyone gets a
fair shake and an equal voice. Instead of being told “you're
throwing your vote away” and “don't hand the election to ______,”
they're going to be told “we need your vote” and asked “what do
we need to do
That my friends, are what presidential
elections are supposed to be about.
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